SEOUL — Entering its second week, the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has escalated dramatically, with relentless airstrikes pounding Tehran “every few hours” and residents describing the past night as the “worst” yet. President Donald Trump has hardened his stance, declaring there will be “no deal” with Iran except “unconditional surrender,” while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insists the operation is “only just getting started” and “accelerating,” with more U.S. forces arriving in the region.
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, with coordinated strikes under U.S. Operation “Epic Fury” and Israel’s “Roaring Lion,” has already claimed thousands of lives and disrupted global energy markets. Iranian state media and the Red Crescent Society report over 1,200–1,332 deaths from U.S.-Israeli attacks, including heavy civilian tolls—such as a deadly strike on an elementary school in Minab (southern Iran) that killed scores of children, with new CNN imagery suggesting U.S. involvement. Israel reports at least 11 civilian deaths from Iranian missile barrages, while the U.S. has confirmed six service members killed in retaliatory drone and missile strikes on Gulf bases, with more injuries.
Iran’s counteroffensive under “Operation True Promise IV” continues with ballistic missile and drone waves targeting Israel (including central areas like Tel Aviv and Beit Shemesh), U.S. facilities in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, and even extending to Cyprus and Sri Lanka. Proxies like Hezbollah have intensified cross-border fire from Lebanon (displacing over 95,000 in Beirut), and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted tanker traffic, sending oil prices soaring.
Economic Shockwaves
Brent crude has surged past $80–$92 per barrel in recent days—hitting multi-month highs amid fears of prolonged disruption to ~20% of global oil flows through the Strait—while U.S. gasoline averages have risen 11–30 cents to around $3.32 per gallon. Analysts warn Brent could breach $100 if the conflict drags on, fueling inflation and market volatility. Defense stocks have climbed on strike news, highlighting a stark disconnect: financial markets react swiftly to energy risks, while public attention often lags behind the mounting human cost.
U.S. Strategy: Degrade, Then Delegate
The administration frames the campaign as targeted degradation—destroying Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities (60–90% of launchers reportedly crippled), navy (including a U.S. submarine sinking a warship in the Indian Ocean, the first such torpedo strike since WWII), air defenses, and command structures—without boots on the ground or nation-building. Hegseth has emphasized controlling Iran’s “airspace and waterways” to prevent nuclear acquisition and regional terrorism funding, rejecting notions of an “endless” conflict while acknowledging “more casualties could come.”
Trump has repeatedly urged Iranians to “seize control of your destiny” and “take over your government” once repressive tools are dismantled, betting on internal revolt for legitimacy. This avoids the “invader” label that could trigger widespread jihad martyrdom against foreign forces.
The Asymmetry: Battlefield Edge vs. Existential Resolve
U.S.-Israeli air superiority delivers rapid gains, but the war lacks the post-9/11 national consensus that sustained earlier interventions. Recent polls reflect broad unease: A CNN survey shows 59% disapproving of the strikes (41% approving), with strong disapproval roughly double strong support; Reuters/Ipsos pegs approval at just 27% (43% disapprove); and averages hover around 49–59% opposition. Partisan divides are sharp—76% of Republicans back the action in some surveys, versus 11% of Democrats—with many framing it as “Israel’s war” rather than America’s.
Morale challenges persist: Reports of command rhetoric linking the fight to end-times themes have raised cohesion concerns, compounded by ongoing veteran treatment issues and generational shifts away from broad patriotism. Critics warn that without eager dedication, setbacks could erode support faster.
On the Iranian side, desperation fuels fierce resistance. Fatwas declare jihad a religious duty, and even conservative estimates of 20–30% regime loyalists among ~90 million people suggest a potential pool for sustained guerrilla warfare. Cheap asymmetric tools—drones, IEDs, proxies—could bleed U.S. forces in a prolonged insurgency, echoing Iraq and Afghanistan quagmires where battlefield wins gave way to chaos.
War Boomerangs Home
The conflict has heightened homeland risks: DHS and FBI maintain elevated alerts for Iranian proxies, sleepers, or lone-wolf revenge inspired by Khamenei’s death and ongoing fatwas (with 17+ prior thwarted plots linked to Iran). Politically, a pre-2026 midterm terror incident could spark a rally-around-the-flag boost for Republicans, despite the human toll.
Civilian scrutiny intensifies scrutiny on strikes (e.g., school and hospital proximity hits), potentially hardening jihad narratives and undermining the internal-revolt strategy if no mass uprising emerges amid repression.
Outlook: Weekend Escalation Tests Limits
With strikes ramping (new waves on Tehran bunkers using 50+ jets, Lebanon bombardments), no broad allied coalition beyond Israel, and economic pain mounting, the coming days—especially this critical weekend—could prove decisive. Will internal fractures (defections, Kurdish opposition) accelerate regime collapse? Or will jihad math and fatigue force a U.S. pivot?
Trump predicts a short war but warns of losses; Hegseth vows “steady progress” while preparing for endurance. As oil nears crisis levels and casualties rise daily, the question remains: Can military dominance deliver a clean victory, or will structural mismatches turn it into another endless burden?